10-year forecast reveals challenges for Mission CISD

A demographic study predicts Mission CISD won’t regain pre-COVID enrollment numbers until at least 2034, but the area’s thriving Gen Z population keeps Superintendent Dr. Cris Valdez hopeful for the future. 

Mission CISD hired Zonda Intelligence to provide a demographic analysis of its communities to give the district a scope of the local population. The report contained expansive information, including enrollment trends, local economic conditions, birth rate analysis and campus capacity. The superintendent said the information will help the administration make data-driven decisions.

“When it comes to facility planning, staffing, budgeting, classroom planning, that’s what we use this data for, for strategic decision-making in the short term and long term,” Valdez said. 

The key takeaway is Mission CISD’s enrollment, which has declined by 434 students from the fall of the 2022-2023 school year, meaning less state funding for the district. Pre-COVID, Mission CISD boasted a student population that hovered around 15,000. But the district hasn’t seen membership numbers like that since then. 

Additionally, the district is recruiting less of the total children that live in the area. The Zonda demographic report showed that Mission CISD’s capture rate decreased from 89% to 87% from 2020 to 2024, meaning 13% of the children in the Mission area are in other school systems. But the report also showed that about 14% of the student population currently resides outside the district, while attending MCISD. 

However, the decline in enrollment is not unique to Mission Schools. Districts throughout the state have reported membership reduction in recent years. Zonda Demographer Rocky Gardiner said the state used to average about 50,000 new students yearly in brick-and-mortar ISDs. When COVID hit, the number of students in those schools dropped by about 120,000. Public educators expected a large bounce-back in the years that followed, but that wasn’t the case for the state. Gardiner believes a good portion of those students turned to homeschooling. 

“Pretty much everyone in this region has declined since COVID,” the demographer said. “There will be some stabilizing happening, we believe, over the next couple of years. We’re definitely seeing the trends. But Mission is not the only one having some of these challenges.” 

The Zonda report also showed that seven elementary campuses are below 60% capacity, while three are over 100% capacity. The low-capacity campuses are Castro, Marcell, Pearson, Alton, Waitz, Salinas and Escobar-Rios. Gardiner stated Mission CISD “could be more efficient” with utilizing its campuses. At the March 5 workshop, the capacity stats had the board discussing marketing strategies, zoned schooling or repurposing campuses. 

Nearby school district La Joya ISD recently announced the consolidation of its four early college high schools and the closure of one elementary school. The LJISD chief staff said a deciding factor for the closure was low capacity at three elementary schools near each other — as is the case with Pearson, Marcell and O’Grady at Mission CISD. 

School closures are a statewide trend, according to the Zonda demographer. He said he’s seen an increase in public school campus closures this year and anticipates more. But Mission students shouldn’t worry yet. The MCISD superintendent said the district has not made any decisions regarding capacity. 

“Neighboring districts have consolidated some schools so that’s something that we’re looking into but we’re not initiating any of that,” Valdez said. “But neighboring school districts, and even throughout the Valley, due to the decline in enrollment and to better utilize our resources efficiently — one being facilities — that’s when the study comes into play. [The data] will drive those decisions in the district.” 

She stated Mission is not yet in the position where it needs to worry about campus closures, but eventually, MCISD will have to weigh its options. 

“As a superintendent and as an executive leadership team you look at the cost outweighing the benefits of running a school,” the superintendent said. “You’re not utilizing the entire capacity of the building, the staffing costs, just the operations of that campus.” 

She continued. 

“We’ll circle back when it’s time to discuss potential next steps,” the superintendent said. “It’s always at the forefront of our minds when we’re forecasting, when we’re planning the budget, when we’re staffing. It’s always at the forefront. This data is so impertinent because of rightsizing the district with staffing.”

The good news for Mission is its youthful population and incoming housing developments. Zonda reported that 60% of the community that Mission CISD serves is 45 years or younger, with Gen Z and Gen Alpha making up 39.4% of the area. The demographer called the population “very young.” 

With new homes cropping up and the anticipation of lower interest rates, Zonda foresees more families moving into the Mission area. Although Mission CISD is in the middle of a negative growth trend, the demographer sees light at the end of the tunnel. He does not anticipate returning to the pre-COVID membership of 15,000, but he predicts Mission CISD will move into positive growth in about five years. 

“We have seen some declines but I think the trend is going to shift. I think we’re going to start moving the other way,” Gardiner said. “There’s enough housing that can at least sustain it. You’re not going to take off and see some crazy growth, but I think you can get some of this back. Sitting right around 13,500 or 14,000 [students] might be the sweet spot.”